The project
Enerdata was commissioned by the Hauts-de-France regional branch of the French Energy Agency for Ecological Transition (ADEME) to develop four regional decarbonisation scenarios for the transport sector, in partnership with Aurélien Bigo – expert in energy transition in transports, Auxilia conseil, IN NUMERI, and Squada.
ADEME sought to analyse and refine current trend data, and then explore scenarios up to 2050, taking into account local specificities and the diversity of the region’s territories (i.e., its rural, semi-urban, and urban areas). The results, which covered energy pathways, emissions, employment, economic impacts, and co-benefits, were discussed with local stakeholders and a representative panel of citizens to enrich the scenarios with critical considerations of feasibility and desirability.
Strategic stakes
ADEME has outlined four exploratory pathways to achieve carbon neutrality in France by 2050. These are contrasting scenarios based on the IPCC’s socio-economic frameworks, ranging from the most ambitious approaches focused on sufficiency measures to a scenario based essentially on technological innovation, alongside two intermediate pathways that combine these strategies.
These scenarios will form a foundation for other forward-looking initiatives, including the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC3) and RTE’s work on the future of the French electricity grid.
As part of the REV3 initiative, and in collaboration with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Regional Government, ADEME Hauts-de-France has conducted several sectoral studies. This latest chapter - the fourth in the series - focuses specifically on personal mobility and freight transport, which are critical components in the region’s transition towards sustainable development.
- Extensive expertise in transport decarbonisation modelling, evidenced by the development of the « NOTOS » model for the Sud Region and the « EVEREST » model for the national Transition(s) 2050 project.
- Specialised in custom modelling tools and scenario development, with an emphasis on tailored territorial approaches, including regional and urban scales.
- Strong capabilities in data collection and processing, with proven experiences in gathering regional data and downscaling national datasets to build robust regional databases.
- In-depth analysis of mobility trends, leveraging the two French national mobility surveys (2009 and 2019) to extract highly accurate, localised insights.
- Effective stakeholder and citizen engagement, facilitating workshops designed to present results and enrich scenarios with critical feedback and local perspectives.
- Adaptation opportunities and risks within mitigation scenarios
- The Seine-Nord Europe canal and its role in river transport infrastructure
- The importance of transit systems in the region
- The maritime façade and major ports of the region
- Step 1
- Defining the scope of responsibility, specifically excluding transit but including half of all trips originating from and destined for the region.
- Collecting, harmonising, and analysing passenger and freight transport data for the Hauts-de-France region within the chosen scope, covering the past ten years.
- Validating the collected data with key sector stakeholders (road, rail, river, aviation, and maritime).
- Creating a prospective reference framework and developing assumptions to adapt major projects across the four ADEME-defined scenarios.
- Developing an initial energy trajectory and greenhouse gas emissions pathway up to 2050.
- Step 2
- Organising workshops with business leaders, regional authorities, and vocational training stakeholders.
- Enriching scenarios and adjusting results based on the feedback gathered from these sessions.
- Building a sub-regional model and producing scenarios at the scale of rural, semi-urban, and urban units.
- Assessing economic and employment impacts, adaptation challenges, changes in travel times, and associated health co-benefits.
- Step 3
- Conducting citizen engagement sessions with a representative panel selected by random draw.
- Testing the feasibility and desirability of scenarios with citizens.
- Drafting complementary regional analyses (“focus” studies) to provide deeper insights.
- Presenting the final findings to regional stakeholders.
- A comprehensive transport database for the Hauts de France region.
- A scenario planning for regional projects.
- A quantified 2050 scenario.
- A complete report and an executive summary of the work.
- Training materials.
Carbon neutrality scenarios
